Monday, October 20, 2008

Silver/Zinc Batteries the TSA and the GM Volt

Two blogs ago I extolled the virtues of owning physical silver and promised I would amplify on my reason for believing silver has an incredible upside due to its potential in silver/zinc batteries. To follow along, remember that one ounce has 28.35 grams in it. This will be important later on during the pop quiz.

A privately owned US startup company called ZPower, at zpowerbattery.com, says that they have developed a new, patented way of making silver/zinc batteries that will revolutionize the power available for our laptops, ipods, mobile phones and other portable devices.

Their main claim to fame is 40% more runtime at the same power and voltage for the same weight as a lithium-ion, rechargable battery. In addition, the ZPower battery materials can all be recycled easily and safely, while lithium can not, and the battery is not explosive. That is why TSA is in the title of this piece, they have become concerned about the potential threat of a lithium bomb on a plane, and are now limiting batteries at 8 grams of lithium and only one battery allowed in carry on, and only then if it is installed in a laptop. Evidently lithium can explode in the right conditions when mixed with water, I think because the hydrogen given off can explode, but not being a chemist, it's just important to know that the TSA thinks it's dangerous enough that a bomb could be made out of small amounts of it, so, when it comes to exploding, it can and it's dangerous.

Which brings up the GM Volt. GM and others are going to need batteries for electric cars, and hybrid cars, the lighter the better. And, who wants a battery that will blow up in an accident? Or cause a fire at the very least? And if it's to be made safe probably needs even heavier dense plastic or metal shielding around it? Now you're getting the picture, weight in a car, dead weight, reduces mileage and performance, so a lighter silver zinc battery could be a very good thing.

Let's look at how this new battery could impact the price of silver. If the average laptop has 5 grams of lithium in its battery, (http://www.batteryuniversity.com/partone-5.htm), then the equivalent silver/zinc battery would have about 2 grams of silver in it. And lithium ion cell phone batteries have approximately 1 gram of lithium, so a silver zinc battery would have about half a gram of silver.

Annual sales of laptops: roughly 130 million, (you can go to http://www.worldometers.info/computers/ and see a rolling number of computers being sold globally it's about 3 a second or so, it's going up like the national debtometer, really fast!)

Annual sales of cell phone: roughly 1.15 billion.

Potential silver usage in these two products:

Laptops: 130 million times 2 grams is 260 million grams of silver divided by 28.35, (you forgot already didn't you?) is 9.17 million oz. of silver a year.

Cell phones 1.15 billion times 1/2 gm silver is 575 million grams of silver, which is about 20 million more oz of silver each year.

So the new silver zinc battery could potentially increase the demand for silver by 29 million ounces a year. And that's not even starting to figure in the demand for camera batteries, hearing aid batteries, ipod batteries, and what about batteries for the Volt and other cars that need long lasting powerful light weight batteries? If you really want to start getting crazy, about 50 million cars are made a year. If they all end up being hybrids in 10 years, we're talking millions of pounds more of silver demand.

Currently total world silver production is about 600 million ounces a year, (Wikipedia claims 670 million oz. mined a year so I'll use that to be on the safe side) and existing industrial and jewelry demand is roughly 850 million ounces a year, the slack is coming from scrap and old silverware being turned in and melted down, (http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/scd032304.html)

So now, with the silver/zinc battery, we're going to increase the demand for silver by another 4%. Doesn't sound like a lot, but I predict it is going to gradually drive up the price of silver, because of the utility of the new, longer lasting battery in computers and cell phones, and especially if the price of silver is eventually driven by an exploding, (not literally) demand for silver/zinc batteries in hybrid/electric cars.

How high could silver go in price? Let's work backwards from how much a person would be willing to pay "extra" to have a battery that lasts twice as long. A battery that actually lets you use your computer for an entire five hour flight would have to be worth at least twice current prices, especially when you remember TSA won't let you bring a spare on board. But what would that do to the price of silver? Quite a bit actually.

A lithium ion battery for a laptop costs about $50 now, and a silver/zinc battery would be worth twice as much since it would last twice as long, so it would probably retail for $100. If the new laptop silver zinc battery sells at retail for $50 more than the lithium ion, what kind of cost increase just from the silver would that justify? You can work backwards typically, $50 retail is $25 wholesale which is $12.50 manufacturing cost - a very rough markup measurement used in industry, meaning a $12.50 cost increase due to silver content of 2 grams, or $6.25 a gram, times good old 28.35 grams in an ounce, meaning the demand for these excellent batteries could easily drive silver to a new price of $180 an ounce. This is 18 times higher than current prices. Keep in mind, that's the paper comex price, actual real silver is selling at about $14 an oz. $4 an oz more than spot comex. A coin show in Portland last weekend with over one hundred dealers offered for sale only one, one hundred ounce bar of silver. And that's without the utility of having a battery that is the same weight and twice as powerful. Meaning, if you inherit silverware from grandma, don't sell it! Because...

If these batteries are as great as ZPower says they are, the demand is going to be incredible. You can't buy ZPower stock yet, but when it goes public, snap it up, they have the patent lock on the process that will revolutionize batteries. And maybe make $250 an ounce, maybe $500 an ounce silver, a possibility in the next ten years. Of course there will be a lot of new silver mines going into production, which is great for mining stocks. Did I mention that some silver mining stocks went up 16500 percent during the last silver bull market? (Yes, penny stocks went to $50 and more a share before everything fell apart thanks to the Hunt brothers, but this time I think the demand is going to be real, not someone cornering the market).

But, that's another blog.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Is Obama this Depression's Huey Long?

October 18th, 2008 Saturday morning

Is there a storm on the horizon, another election that some feel is rigged? We'll find out soon. I hope not, I hope Obama wins by a landslide. It's his election to lose.

The last debate is over. Obama the calm winner, McCain the frantic, desperate, rattled old man whose time has come and gone. When he blustered, "Joe, you're rich!" in an angry response to Obama's logical explanation of his health plan, I thought, that's it, McCain has lost the undecided, because I for one couldn't understand his comment and I was weary of trying. Every time McCain said we needed change, that the country was hurting, he offered nothing but more of Bush's tax cuts for the super wealthy and it seemed to emphasize the need to elect Obama.

The benefit of Bush's tax cuts has not helped the average American. Maybe if everyone in Ohio for example was engaged in luxury boat building for the super rich, or personal massage or owned a $15,000 a night hotel suite on the Riviera, then Bush's wealth dripping down from the top economics might actually employ some people in Ohio! But from what I can see, the super wealthy have made sure that the smallest amount of money possible leaks out of their wallets.

Who are these super wealthy who benefited so much from Bush's tenure? I recall a dinner where Bush looked out on his audience and said, "Gathered tonight are the haves... and the have mores!"

Well, he was right, sadly, this one room full of several hundred people probably owned more assets than the other several million of the people in the town combined!

Huey Long was elected Governor of Louisiana in 1928. He campaigned on a platform of share the wealth, and coined the phrase, "Every man a king, but no one wears a crown." In one of his most famous speeches, delivered in 1934, which was called Every Man a King, he observed,

"Now, my friends, if you were off on an island where there were 100 lunches, you could not let one man eat up the hundred lunches, or take the hundred lunches and not let anybody else eat any of them. If you did, there would not be anything else for the balance of the people to consume." (http://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/hueyplongking.htm and for more on Huey Long, http://www.hueylong.com/index.php).

His philosophy holds as true today as it did then, but our perspective has expanded, we don't need to imagine ourselves on an island, for we all know that we are on Spaceship Earth, an island of warmth and light in a vacuum of vast, endless space.
Our island is the whole planet, and those people on the island now represent the six plus billion people who live here. Yet the problem still remains, we are still letting a few people eat all the lunches, and even worse, pass those lunches on from generation to generation, so that we end up with the Paris Hilton's of the world who are "famous for being famous"!

The super wealthy, the "have mores" as Bush described them, have been able to do this because they are very clever at hiding among the masses, at putting their own political identities in with those of the aspiring small business person of America, so that when we discuss capitalism and free markets, we end up with inheritance taxes as an example, in which the average business owner or rancher is dead set against a high inheritance tax rate, and the same rate is then applied to the "have mores" as well.

Now I totally agree that a family farm worth even $50 million should be passed on with no inheritance tax at all. A $50 million estate is not that large any more. What we need to do though, is to separate the "have mores", the people with 100 lunches in Huey Long's terms, from the rest of us, and have a high inheritance tax that does not even get imposed until one reaches some level like $50 million, (adjusted for inflation each year).

While not taxing an estate until it is worth $50 million, remember that while a person with a net worth of $50 million is 1,000 times wealthier than a person has with an estate of $50,000, Bill Gates with a fortune of $50 billion is an astounding 1,000 times wealthier than the person with the $50 million fortune. And to his credit, Bill Gates feels that the inheritance tax he pays should be far higher than the one on the books now.

Estate taxes are only one area where the "have mores" are not sharing their lunches because they are hiding among the common man's laws. Take minimum wage for example. When I was 18, it was roughly $2 an hour. It cost $4 a day to ski at Mt. Bachelor. Now, the highest minimum wage in the country is in Oregon and it will be close to $8 an hour, yet Mt. Bachelor now charges almost $80 a day to ski! Minimum wages have gone up four fold since 1966, while prices have gone up 20 fold! The have mores definitely benefit when they can hire labor for less than $8 an hour. If minimum wage had gone up with inflation, it would now cost $40 an hour, a living wage, to hire a gardener.

If Obama is elected, his tax plan, increasing taxes on incomes over $250,000, while lowering on those below, will be a wonderful beginning at legally separating the economic fate of the have mores from the rest of us on the island that are frankly, in need of some lunches! He plans to increase minimum wage to $10 an hour, and I just hope that it indexes higher each year with inflation.

Is Obama another Huey Long? I think in his heart, he is, but his rhetoric is not that of Every Man a King. Instead it is more balanced and deals in concepts such as bringing jobs back to America, a medical plan for all. The have mores are going to have to give up a little by paying more taxes, but it is going to help all of us a lot. And in the end, that's a good thing for the have mores, I'm sure that Louis 14th would have gladly given up some of his fortune to avoid his fate.

I just hope that Obama takes a lesson from Huey Long's life and takes a slow and careful path in making his changes. Huey Long was one of the most popular men in America, and would have probably become President in 1936, yet he fell to an assasin's bullet. The have mores don't take kindly to the rest of us trying to improve our lot.

Friday, October 10, 2008

Market Meltdown Friday Oct. 10th.

It's 11:00 am in New York as I write and so far this morning the Dow has:
opened lower than last night's close, plunged 570 some points within in an hour to almost go into the 7,000's, 8059 to be precise, then rose within another hour to go up 600 to a little above the open price. Now it's back down 270.

Wow! If this was a roller coaster, everyone on board would be dead with broken necks from whiplash! That will teach the SEC not to not allow people to short stocks! (The big selling started yesterday afternoon when they lifted the short ban and the dammed up shorts flooded the market, kind of an odd visual picture of underwear racing down a mountain canyon made up of high rise New York buildings).

Meantime, the spot price of silver is $11.77 an oz., and spot is supposed to be the daily price of the physical commodity, but if you go to Kitco.com, one of the big market makers, they say they don't know when they can deliver to you if you want them to actually sell you some real physical silver, and if you're crazy enough to want to sell it to them today, they'll give you a $1.35 an oz. premium over "spot". Meaning the real spot price for one oz. of silver this morning is actually over $13!

What is going on? First, am I a silver "bug" whose opinion now should be totally dismissed for even mentioning the security of physically owning silver and gold in these crazy financial times? Well, for starters, I don't own 127 million oz. of silver physically stored in a vault in London, nope... that honor goes to Warren Buffet! If the much touted wizard of investing owns that much physical silver in a vault, he's the King Cockroach of silver! No one calls him a silver bug, nope he's a Wizard of Wall St. Maybe if you own over a billion dollars worth of silver and it's only 1/40th of your net worth, then you're elevated to guru from bug.

Anyway, why can you buy "spot" silver in the paper markets at less than the price of spot silver in the physical market? Paper, that's the key word. You can buy pieces of paper that say you own silver in an ETF, or on a commodities exchange, because they don't actually have enough physical silver stored to honor all their client's claims of ownership at once if all the clients demand physical delivery of their silver! (This is a very old type of swindling that goes back to the time when people invented silver certificates, pieces of paper saying that you could get an oz of silver for each denominated certificate, what we used to call US dollars when I was a little kid until 1964 when the US government gave up on the idea cause it was too hard to borrow money when it actually had to be real money. Since then a nickel Coke is now $1.00 or more.)

The ETF's contract with storage companies that promise to dutifully warehouse silver when a person sends money in to the ETF. Yet these storage companies aren't audited. They just say they have as much silver as they've issued certificates. Doesn't this sound like another perfect storm where we wake up one morning next week and listen to a reporter on CNN reporting from one of Bermuda's spa hotels?

"To the amazement of all, the most powerful and honored Wall St. company called ______________, (fill in the blank here, already you could put in Bear Stearns, Lehman etc.) has gone bankrupt and has announced they really don't have the silver in storage that they said they did. Their top executives could not be reached at the beach in Bermuda where they have all landed courtesy of their golden parachutes, as they are currently in a stress therapy seminar entitled, "How not to feel guilty about cheating other people out of money."

This reporter asked if they might be available later on in the afternoon but the massage staff from the Hotel that just flew in by private jet after giving $23,000 worth of massages to those troubled AIG execs last week said, "Of course not, these are VIP's desperately in need of life saving massages! Are you crazy? Do you want to upset these geniuses of Wall Street upon whom their very existence our future depends?" (Masseuses speak in their own odd, grammatical way.)

This reporter observed that if they were such geniuses, then why did their companies go bankrupt? With a shake of their heads and toss of their towels, the totally white uniformed, buff and beautiful male and female massueses refused to answer any more questions and stomped off in a huff down the palm lined concrete sidewalk while cursing me in Swiss, (they all speak 11 languages).

I guess I rubbed them the wrong way."

The advice for today is to go out and find some physical silver if you can and hide it in your house, the middle class equivalent of yet again successfully emulating Warren Buffet. Oh, and don't rush out and sell your stocks now, you're too late and the party's over. The sky isn't falling. The Fed will eventually lower to below 1% and all will be set right in another rush of mortgage refinancing as mortgages for about a year go to the 4% range as inflation holds off and the world recovers.

But then hold on! If that flood of shorts was bad, wait until it takes a wheel barrel of hundreds to go grocery shopping! That's when you'll be glad you hid that pile of silver in your house.

Come back soon for more on the reason silver is going to be rising soon - the silver zinc battery for the electric car, twice the power for the same weight!

Oh, and my other advice for your future security is to learn massage and 10 more languages so you too can get a job in the future where the middle class has had all its money taken away and there are only two jobs left , VIP and masseuse, and you can only be a VIP if you already were as of the day you read this article. While this sounds like the decline of Rome with the rich and the slaves... it is!

Thursday, October 2, 2008

What is the Senate Thinking Passing the Bailout Bill?

This Bailout looks like it is going to happen with last night's approval by the Senate.

$700 Billion from American taxpayers to buy all the bad loans from banks all around the world. What? United Bank of Switzerland, Deutschebank, banks in Hong Kong, we're bailing out those banks too?

That's right, go to this wonderful video on TheYoungTurks.com for an excellent insight into the insanity of this bailout bill, called This is How the Bailout will Screw You

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OTM8Y3a5zQ&feature=related

But other countries are helping us right? Doesn't sound like it. Just us!

Hey, we're going to spend $5,000 each to bail out all by ourselves all the bad loans that banks around the world now hold, not to help homeowners in America. If this is going to help Main St. it's going to be the crumbs and dust falling off the plates of the super rich of Wall St. and being scooped up for food by the starving on Main St.!

And watch this wonderful objection to the bailout bill by Rep. Mary Kaptur from Ohio's 9th District, suggested by Alan who read an earlier blog,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S27yitK32ds

Honestly, we don't need to bail out all the bad loans of the global big banks to end this liquidity crisis on US Banks. Instead, we just need to change the mark to market regulations on banks, as proposed by DeFazio, and this "emergency" will be over. Their assets will be held at full value with the stroke of a pen and no money spent by us. Problem solved.

Then, if we want to turn our economy around, let's subsidize mortgages for those in foreclosure to the tune of $2 billion a year initially, and at the same time, spend the $700 Billion on infrastructure, solar, wind, more efficient car motors, gosh, that would be so many wonderful things for the good of our country! Why give it all to global banks who want to get rid of bad loans? Because the market dropped 778 three days ago? It went up 450 the next day. So where's the panic? Maybe if we spend $700 Billion on infrastructure it would go up by 4000! Hey, why not just split the bill, $350 Billion on bailout, $350 Billion on infrastructure, and see what happens? Why put all our money into one basket?

Why rush the decision? Is the sky really falling? It is for the bankers, but not for Main St. Not badly enough to bail out United Bank of Switzerland's bad loans!

Who came up with this? Oh, that's right, Treasury Secretary Paulson, formerly CEO of Goldman Sachs, who is personally worth $700 million. Well gosh, he's got a lot in common with those of us on Main St.

I have a very bad feeling about this bill. It's going to get passed, and we're still going to have a recession/depression. Get ready to spend $1 Trillion next year on infrastructure because we're not going to see the economy improve much at all with this baillout bill.

Sure, when it passes, the market is going to rally, for awhile, but I would strongly advise putting very tight stop limits under your rising stocks, because once it's apparent that this bailout bill is not going to stop our slide into a depression, stocks are going to drop even more. Maybe not financial stocks, but most of the rest.

I'm so disappointed in the Senate.